U.S. Q4 final GDP up 1.0 pct annualized vs 1.1 previous estimate

WASHINGTON (AFX) - The U.S. economy expanded at a 1.0 pct annual rate in the fourth quarter, slightly weaker than the previous estimate of a 1.1 pct growth rate, the Commerce Department said. This is the smallest quarterly gain in GDP since the second quarter 1995. The final revision to fourth quarter GDP growth was marginally weaker than expected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for fourth quarter GDP to remain unrevised at 1.1 pct. The downward revision to fourth quarter GDP was due to a lower build-up of inventories investment than previously thought, and to weaker exports of goods, the Commerce Department said. The report did little to change the picture of a dramatic slowdown at the end of last year. Final sales -- GDP growth minus inventory behavior -- grew at a revised 1.7 pct in the fourth quarter, up from the previous estimate of 1.5 pct. The GDP chain-weighted price index rose a revised 2.0 pct in the fourth quarter, up from the previous estimate of a 1.9 pct increase. Excluding food and energy prices, the GDP chain-weighted index rose a revised 1.9 pct, up from the previous estimate of a 1.8 pt rise. The consumption price index rose 1.9 pct in the fourth quarter, unrevised from the previous estimate. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index was up 1.6 pct, also unrevised from the previous estimate. This is the third and final revision to fourth quarter GDP. The first estimate of first quarter GDP will be released on April 25. Economists at JP Morgan said the range of estimates for first quarter GDP is very wide, reflecting the varying degree of inventory adjustment in the first quarter. In the fourth quarter, the decreases were partially offset by increased exports of services. Inventories subtracted slightly more from fourth quarter GDP growth than previously thought. Businesses added 55.7 bln usd to inventories in the fourth quarter, down from the previous estimate of 59.5 bln. The real change in business inventories subtracted 0.62 percentage points from fourth quarter GDP growth, compared with the previous estimate that inventories subtracted 0.46 percentage points. The trade sector subtracted less from fourth quarter GDP growth than previously thought. Trade subtracted 0.55 percentage points from fourth quarter GDP growth compared with the previous estimate of a 0.59 percentage point loss. Exports were revised to a fall of 6.4 pct, weaker than the previous estimate of a 6.1 pct fall. Exports on goods were weaker than previously thought, falling 9.9 pct compared to the previous estimate of a 8.5 pct decline. But exports of services were much stronger than previously thought. This is the first decline in exports on goods since the first quarter of 1999. Exports of services increased 3.4 pct in the fourth quarter compared with a previous estimate of a 0.4 pct rise. Imports were revised to a fall of 1.2 pct, weaker than the previous estimate of a 0.7 pct fall. Business fixed investment declined a revised 0.1 pct, slightly stronger than the previous estimate of a 0.6 pct decline.

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