Kansas City Fed's Hoenig sees 'signs of recovery' in U.S. economy

DENVER CO (AFX) - There are already "some signs of recovery" in the U.S.  economy and a full recovery should begin in the April-June quarter, according  to Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank.     "Over the last couple of months, things have begun to stabilize and I  think you've seen some signs of recovery," Hoenig said in a speech to a  business group here.      "The U.S. economy is sufficiently strong to withstand the current turmoil  and begin to recover, as I suggest, in the second and third quarter of the  year," Hoenig said.      Hoenig said that while the stockmarket is showing no signs of the  recovery, "if you look at residential housing, and non-residential  construction, they've remained relatively strong."      He said that consumer spending on autos and other durable goods has also  shown "some stabilization."      Hoenig noted that the economy has already surprised pessimists.      "As people look at the situation today, many economists who talked about  the recession in the first quarter will probably be predicting a growth rate  of 1.0 pct," Hoenig said.      He said the outlook "is full of uncertainty... but I will tell you that  the second quarter will continue to be relatively slow growth, and perhaps  some rise in unemployment, although that's not for sure."      "But as manufacturing has the opportunity to return to normal production,  the economy - by the end of the year - will return to 2.5, perhaps even a 3  pct growth rate," Hoenig said.      One major risk factor will be continued high gas prices, Hoenig said.      "If energy prices remain high, or increase, that is going to continue to  cut into discretionary spending," he said.			

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